Windows 8: A Product Launch for the History Books

Complex launches are very, very hard to do. This is why Apple launches one product at a time if it has the choice, because we are easily confused. Microsoft will be launching new laptops, tablets, all-in-ones, desktops, and smartphones in the same window. This is typically called a "big bang" launch, and this will be one of the biggest.

The Windows 8 launch in October promises to be like no other launch. I think it will drive home several points that many of us don't seem to understand, like the fact that we both whine there isn't enough innovation and run for the hills when someone innovates in a mature market. I think Microsoft will change a lot after this launch, and as a result, the PC ecosystem will be dramatically different next year.

This launch will put Nvidia and Qualcomm more solidly into the PC spotlight and likely put far more pressure on Intel and AMD. It will also slam the most creative marketing team Microsoft has fielded since Windows 95 against the most difficult marketing problem I've seen in my life -- and I've been around for a while. The entire PC ecosystem, including Apple, is sweating this one. On top of all of this, Nokia's future will be closely tied to the release of the Windows 8 product that will ship at the same time. In short, Microsoft's client future -- all of it -- may be tied to what happens next quarter.

I'll go further into that and close with my product of the week: a tablet that -- for me -- may be the perfect alternative to an iPad.

The Core of the Windows 8 Problem Is Us

This is the kind of thing that can drive a product manager, marketing officer, or analyst (like me) nuts. You see we all -- I mean users here -- complain that every new product looks a lot like the product that came before. New releases are increasingly boring and don't seem very innovative. We pound on companies ranging from Microsoft to Apple, claiming they are losing their innovation mojo.

I mean, look at the Mac OS. It really hasn't changed that dramatically since it launched, and it still is on version 10 and been there for a decade. Apple went through the nine previous versions in a little more than the same time.

What's the most successful of the Apple iPhone competitors? The Samsung Galaxy II running Android, which is the phone that just got nailed for being a knockoff of the iPhone. How about the most successful non-iPad tablet? It's the near-exact copy -- I could argue it actually looks better -- of the iPad 2, the Samsung Galaxy Tab, which also was found to be too close to Apple's product.

What is the phone that is the most different? Probably Windows Phone 7, which was designed to address all of the complaints surrounding the iPhone and the Android copies. The user experience is arguably better, but it is vastly different -- and the result is that almost no one (except a few folks like me) carries it.

Even if you look at the iPad's success, it was the result of Steve Jobs getting us to see it as a new category rather than a netbook with a touchscreen and no keyboard, which is what it actually was. Had we seen it as a cheap, crippled Mac with a different UI, I doubt he would have sold more than a few thousand. Now that it is established, if any major change were introduced -- even by Apple -- we would likely vote with our feet that we didn't want it.

So for all of the change we scream, beg, and argue for, we are incredibly dishonest, because we really don't like change. This will be the biggest problem for Microsoft to overcome for both Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. Even Steve Jobs never attempted something like this, and he was unmatched in doing product launches.